the golden grail of forex
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Alfa-Forex has been in the forex industry since The broker is a part of Alfa Group, a Russian consortium with businesses in banking, insurance, investment, a waterworks company and supermarket chains. The goal of this Alfa-Forex review is to inform you of their advantages and disadvantages, so you can make a clear choice whether you wish to trade with them. Traders also can trade demo to get used to the platform and test how everything works, which is a useful asset for beginner traders. The offers with alfa forex broker deposit of the platforms are:. The minimum lot size is 0. The offered minimum lot size is 0.

The golden grail of forex weltzins invest lbb investing

The golden grail of forex

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A protective stop order is placed near the opposite fluctuation extremum once the pending order triggered. Once ADX has risen to above 30 and higher, a trader should find an opportunity to open a long position at the exhaustion of a correctional movement. The return of the pair to the maximum of the test bar is a signal for forming a long position.

A stop order is placed at the minimum fluctuation level and trailed upwards as the USD grows against the Japanese yen. The same principles work in a downtrend. The stronger a downtrend, the more chances for building up earlier opened shorts.

Did you like my article? Ask me questions and comment below. I'll be glad to answer your questions and give necessary explanations. Rate this article:. Need to ask the author a question? Please, use the Comments section below. Start Trading Cannot read us every day? Get the most popular posts to your email. Money Management. Overnight Charges. Pair Selection. Directional Bias. Moving Ahead. This is a title that is hard to read or write without smiling. Yet it exists, is staring us all in the face, but is widely ignored, because the psychological stresses of working with the grail are paradoxically greater than most people can cope with.

Before the existence of the holy grail can be proven, it has to be defined, as many grail hunters are not really clear about what it is they are looking for. The Forex Holy Grail Concept The holy grail is a system or strategy with clear rules that works well enough to ensure effortless trading which is profitable overall.

Very often such a system is seemingly found, only for it to fail later, at which point the grail quest must begin again. This is also a larger metaphor for the journey undergone by many retail traders as they struggle to achieve profitability by hopping between different systems and styles. The major mistakes that less experienced traders make when they build strategies are either to base them on too limited an amount of historical data, or to over-optimize them with too many indicators that make it curve-fitted.

This is important to understand, and if you are one of these traders, the sooner that you come to the realization that this is a fruitless and time-wasting path, the better it will be for you. I hope this article will shorten your path to profitability. The Holy Grail Revealed The answer is simple. Instead of trying to build the perfect strategy that most profitably fits the historical data, take a step back, relax, and contemplate the big picture of how markets statistically tend to move.

So forget about candlesticks and indicators for the time being, and think about speculative markets. What phenomena do they exhibit that might be exploited by the trader? Fat Tails within the Returns Distribution Curve — in plain language, markets tend to overreact, rising and falling excessively due to the human sentiments of greed and fear acting upon market participants.

Can either of these phenomena be exploited? Looking at mean reversion first, it is possible but problematic, as stop losses may need to be very wide and profits are by definition limited. I cannot see this as the basis for a holy grail. The overreaction of markets and their tendency to produce excessive returns on a statistical basis is the holy grail, or rather, provides the basis for a holy grail: a methodology that will make effortless profits over time.

The best way this can be explained is to imagine taking a handful of salt grains and throwing them up in the air. Suppose you were then able to measure the distance of each grain of salt from the throwing point. You would find that most of them would be relatively close to you, with a few outliers that had travelled further away. The percentages show how many grains travelled each given distance.

Now suppose that you were constantly buying and selling randomly in the Forex market, and you measured and recorded the maximum possible gain of each trade over thousands of trades and thousands of days. A greater number of excessive price events happen than would normally be produced by simple randomness.

In plain language, the market offers more big winners and losers than it really should. Yes, it can be this simple, although it is not without a few potential pitfalls. These were the most volatile and trending instruments in the Forex markets during most of this period. If a very simple trading strategy of entering upon the next bar break of any engulfing bar on the H4 chart in the direction of the engulf was followed, using a stop loss placed just the other side of the engulfing candle, the following results would have been achieved by instrument and reward to risk profit targets: Notice how a very simple, straightforward strategy that takes no account whatsoever of trend, direction and support and resistance can be made into a positive expectancy of 53 cents gain for every dollar risk, simply by not taking profit until reward has reached 50 times risk!

It would be simple to improve these results by moving stop losses to break even after a certain period of time on every trade. This is because the strongest winners usually will only retest the entry, if at all, relatively quickly. Even the Holy Grail has Pitfalls The holy grail exists, but it has to be handled with caution.

You can find the grail by trading the right instruments that move with maximum volatility, i. You do not have to be right or forecast the major moves: you just have to be there, cut your losers short, and let your winners run. The natural tendency of the market to produce fat tails will do your work for you. There are two major pitfalls that this might lead you to.

The first is that you will be better served by a more intelligent exit strategy than simply aiming for a fixed reward to risk multiple. You need to be booking wins above 10 R:R, ideally towards 25 R:R or even beyond, but each trade will be different.

Look to exit around those levels but use some intelligence and discretion. Also, being prepared to move stops to break even when the trade is a certain distance or time in profit should help. This will inevitably cause very large losing streaks which will severely test both your mental strength and your money management strategy. The grail gives gold, but it is hot to touch and burns the unwary! Do you have what it takes to sit through twenty or more losing trades in a row?

Do you have a money management strategy that will properly protect you from ruin should you begin with a long losing streak? Will you be diversified and uncorrelated enough in order to keep losing streak risk to a minimum? One final danger is worth a mention. It is natural to try to filter entries. However it is very problematic to distinguish entries that are likely to reach a ratio of Furthermore, missing just one of these winners will set back your overall expectancy, unless the method used will also filter out at least 25 losing trades at the same time.

These are some questions to ponder and investigate. Spend some time back testing. The holy grail has been placed in your hands! If the most volatile instruments are traded in this style, it is possible to be nicely profitable over time without having to really make any analysis or decisions. Despite that, this path has some serious pitfalls that must be avoided intelligently.

Back to the Data We can begin by taking a look at the historical data showing how entries upon next bar breaks of H4 engulfing candles performed on the most volatile instruments from to , a three year period, depending upon the reward to risk multiples that might have been selected as targets for trade exits: This table contains two immediately useful pieces of information.

Firstly, we would have taken a total of 2, trades. Secondly, the positive expectancy per trade rises dramatically until a reward to risk ratio of is reached, after which it rises very slowly before falling off a cliff at above This data is not shown in the above table, but of those 2, trades taken, only were winners. These numbers would put a severe strain on any kind of money management strategy, as the probability of suffering enormous losing streaks would be extremely high.

It is more likely than not there was a streak of between and consecutive losing trades during that three year period. Selective Entries Our problem is that we are currently set to enter a very large number of trades, the vast majority of which will be losers. If we can find a way to enter significantly less trades without suffering a proportionate fall in the expectancy per trade, we can worry less about the strain of likely losing streaks.

The danger here is that when profit rests upon a relatively small number of winning trades, you have to be very careful not to cut yourself out of many of those. Fortunately, using the historical data from to , there seems to be a relatively simple filter which does the job.

To win large trades, a trend has to be present. In an uptrend, the price pulls back within the trend making a major low, and then resumes its original direction. By only taking engulfing candles in such an uptrend that make a low lower than the previous 4 candles, or that directly follow such a candle, we are able to filter out a lot of the losing trades, without sacrificing too many of the winning trades.

Here is a table of the performance over the same three year period using this entry filter: It can be seen that overall, the total number of trades is reduced by slightly more than one third, but the winning trades tend to be reduced by a smaller percentage, resulting in rises in the expectancies from to The probable consecutive losing streak is reduced to somewhere between 80 and 90 trades, which is also an improvement.

It is noticeable that this filter had a strongly negative effect upon the Gold trades. Other entry filters that could improve performance would include entering only after engulfing candles with relatively small ranges, as the total positive distance required to be a winner is shorter.

Time of day and trend filters can also be applied, although these can be pretty risky.

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According to Linda Raschke, a level of 30 and a period indicator are meant here. A fast retracement from the period moving average may be the signal. If this is the case, Linda Raschke suggests placing a pending order at the maximum level of the previous bar when it comes to a long position or at the minimum level of the previous bar if bears are predominant in the market. A protective stop order is placed near the opposite fluctuation extremum once the pending order triggered. Once ADX has risen to above 30 and higher, a trader should find an opportunity to open a long position at the exhaustion of a correctional movement.

The return of the pair to the maximum of the test bar is a signal for forming a long position. A stop order is placed at the minimum fluctuation level and trailed upwards as the USD grows against the Japanese yen. The same principles work in a downtrend. The stronger a downtrend, the more chances for building up earlier opened shorts.

Did you like my article? Ask me questions and comment below. I'll be glad to answer your questions and give necessary explanations. Rate this article:. Need to ask the author a question? Before the existence of the holy grail can be proven, it has to be defined, as many grail hunters are not really clear about what it is they are looking for.

The Forex Holy Grail Concept The holy grail is a system or strategy with clear rules that works well enough to ensure effortless trading which is profitable overall. Very often such a system is seemingly found, only for it to fail later, at which point the grail quest must begin again. This is also a larger metaphor for the journey undergone by many retail traders as they struggle to achieve profitability by hopping between different systems and styles. The major mistakes that less experienced traders make when they build strategies are either to base them on too limited an amount of historical data, or to over-optimize them with too many indicators that make it curve-fitted.

This is important to understand, and if you are one of these traders, the sooner that you come to the realization that this is a fruitless and time-wasting path, the better it will be for you. I hope this article will shorten your path to profitability. The Holy Grail Revealed The answer is simple. Instead of trying to build the perfect strategy that most profitably fits the historical data, take a step back, relax, and contemplate the big picture of how markets statistically tend to move.

So forget about candlesticks and indicators for the time being, and think about speculative markets. What phenomena do they exhibit that might be exploited by the trader? Fat Tails within the Returns Distribution Curve — in plain language, markets tend to overreact, rising and falling excessively due to the human sentiments of greed and fear acting upon market participants.

Can either of these phenomena be exploited? Looking at mean reversion first, it is possible but problematic, as stop losses may need to be very wide and profits are by definition limited. I cannot see this as the basis for a holy grail. The overreaction of markets and their tendency to produce excessive returns on a statistical basis is the holy grail, or rather, provides the basis for a holy grail: a methodology that will make effortless profits over time.

The best way this can be explained is to imagine taking a handful of salt grains and throwing them up in the air. Suppose you were then able to measure the distance of each grain of salt from the throwing point. You would find that most of them would be relatively close to you, with a few outliers that had travelled further away. The percentages show how many grains travelled each given distance.

Now suppose that you were constantly buying and selling randomly in the Forex market, and you measured and recorded the maximum possible gain of each trade over thousands of trades and thousands of days. A greater number of excessive price events happen than would normally be produced by simple randomness.

In plain language, the market offers more big winners and losers than it really should. Yes, it can be this simple, although it is not without a few potential pitfalls. These were the most volatile and trending instruments in the Forex markets during most of this period. If a very simple trading strategy of entering upon the next bar break of any engulfing bar on the H4 chart in the direction of the engulf was followed, using a stop loss placed just the other side of the engulfing candle, the following results would have been achieved by instrument and reward to risk profit targets: Notice how a very simple, straightforward strategy that takes no account whatsoever of trend, direction and support and resistance can be made into a positive expectancy of 53 cents gain for every dollar risk, simply by not taking profit until reward has reached 50 times risk!

It would be simple to improve these results by moving stop losses to break even after a certain period of time on every trade. This is because the strongest winners usually will only retest the entry, if at all, relatively quickly. Even the Holy Grail has Pitfalls The holy grail exists, but it has to be handled with caution. You can find the grail by trading the right instruments that move with maximum volatility, i. You do not have to be right or forecast the major moves: you just have to be there, cut your losers short, and let your winners run.

The natural tendency of the market to produce fat tails will do your work for you. There are two major pitfalls that this might lead you to. The first is that you will be better served by a more intelligent exit strategy than simply aiming for a fixed reward to risk multiple. You need to be booking wins above 10 R:R, ideally towards 25 R:R or even beyond, but each trade will be different. Look to exit around those levels but use some intelligence and discretion.

Also, being prepared to move stops to break even when the trade is a certain distance or time in profit should help. This will inevitably cause very large losing streaks which will severely test both your mental strength and your money management strategy. The grail gives gold, but it is hot to touch and burns the unwary! Do you have what it takes to sit through twenty or more losing trades in a row?

Do you have a money management strategy that will properly protect you from ruin should you begin with a long losing streak? Will you be diversified and uncorrelated enough in order to keep losing streak risk to a minimum?

One final danger is worth a mention. It is natural to try to filter entries. However it is very problematic to distinguish entries that are likely to reach a ratio of Furthermore, missing just one of these winners will set back your overall expectancy, unless the method used will also filter out at least 25 losing trades at the same time.

These are some questions to ponder and investigate. Spend some time back testing. The holy grail has been placed in your hands! If the most volatile instruments are traded in this style, it is possible to be nicely profitable over time without having to really make any analysis or decisions. Despite that, this path has some serious pitfalls that must be avoided intelligently. Back to the Data We can begin by taking a look at the historical data showing how entries upon next bar breaks of H4 engulfing candles performed on the most volatile instruments from to , a three year period, depending upon the reward to risk multiples that might have been selected as targets for trade exits: This table contains two immediately useful pieces of information.

Firstly, we would have taken a total of 2, trades. Secondly, the positive expectancy per trade rises dramatically until a reward to risk ratio of is reached, after which it rises very slowly before falling off a cliff at above This data is not shown in the above table, but of those 2, trades taken, only were winners.

These numbers would put a severe strain on any kind of money management strategy, as the probability of suffering enormous losing streaks would be extremely high. It is more likely than not there was a streak of between and consecutive losing trades during that three year period. Selective Entries Our problem is that we are currently set to enter a very large number of trades, the vast majority of which will be losers.

If we can find a way to enter significantly less trades without suffering a proportionate fall in the expectancy per trade, we can worry less about the strain of likely losing streaks. The danger here is that when profit rests upon a relatively small number of winning trades, you have to be very careful not to cut yourself out of many of those.

Fortunately, using the historical data from to , there seems to be a relatively simple filter which does the job. To win large trades, a trend has to be present. In an uptrend, the price pulls back within the trend making a major low, and then resumes its original direction. By only taking engulfing candles in such an uptrend that make a low lower than the previous 4 candles, or that directly follow such a candle, we are able to filter out a lot of the losing trades, without sacrificing too many of the winning trades.

Here is a table of the performance over the same three year period using this entry filter: It can be seen that overall, the total number of trades is reduced by slightly more than one third, but the winning trades tend to be reduced by a smaller percentage, resulting in rises in the expectancies from to The probable consecutive losing streak is reduced to somewhere between 80 and 90 trades, which is also an improvement. It is noticeable that this filter had a strongly negative effect upon the Gold trades.

Other entry filters that could improve performance would include entering only after engulfing candles with relatively small ranges, as the total positive distance required to be a winner is shorter. Time of day and trend filters can also be applied, although these can be pretty risky. For example, Gold tends to short well before the London open and long well after the London close.

The Yen pairs tend to perform well following the first candle representing the initial few hours of the Tokyo session. Bounces off major support or resistance levels can also be the origins of good trades, although it is surprising how many of the best resumptions within trends begin ahead of these levels.

Selective Exits So far, we have only looked a methodology that exits at a fixed R multiple. This could be refined by setting a target based upon an average volatility or number of pips, so that trades with larger risks can be exited at smaller R multiples. Additionally, there is the question of raising stop losses to break even and beyond. We have no hard data, but it is likely that moving the stop loss to break even somewhere between two days and one week after entry, or after the trade has moved a certain favourable distance, would enhance the results.